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Bitcoin's $30,000 Surge: Insights and Predictions

Martin Walker
Oct 21, 2023 at 11:31 am

Bitcoin (BTC), the cryptocurrency that has captured the attention of investors worldwide, experienced a brief dip, temporarily reaching $29,789, only to subsequently rebound to $30,000 during the opening of the Wall Street trading session on October 20th. Market analysts, always eager to scrutinize every twist and turn, shifted their gaze toward the intricate world of weekly closing prices, where potential opportunities and challenges awaited.

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingViewBTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView 

The BTC price is positioning itself for a pivotal weekly closing moment

As BTC's price ascended, it set the stage for an impending showdown during the weekly close. According to data retrieved from TradingView, Bitstamp, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, documented BTC's exhilarating ascent to a two-month high of $30,233. The cryptocurrency demonstrated its unwavering strength throughout the Asian trading session, with only a minor downward adjustment noted at the time of crafting this narrative, gently pulling the spot price just below the $29,500 threshold.

Amidst the persisting volatility in the market, seasoned participants continued to emphasize the importance of a robust weekly candle close, seen as a litmus test for the sustainability of the ongoing rally. Keith Alan, co-founder of the widely respected monitoring resource Material Indicators, brought to the forefront the significance of the 100-week moving average (MA) at $28,627, a key indicator of the market's underlying health and stability.

This unfolding situation demands careful observation, with particular attention on whether the upcoming weekly candle would conclusively surpass the 100-week MA, coupled with a subsequent candle that remains unwavering, devoid of any downward price fluctuations. Alan articulated his perspective, stating, "Some may interpret this as a definitive signal of a bullish breakout, but it's essential to remain vigilant in a market renowned for its sudden twists and deceptive movements. In my view, the path to a fully validated bullish breakout will also require overcoming prior resistance levels, including $30.5k, $31.5k, and ultimately, $33k."

BTC/USD 1-week chart with 100MA. Source: TradingViewBTC/USD 1-week chart with 100MA. Source: TradingView 

Transitioning to the critical support levels, the respected trader Pentoshi firmly underscored the significance of $28,900 as the pivotal threshold upon which the bullish sentiment hinged.

In the context of low-timeframe (LTF) market conditions, another esteemed trader by the name of Skew offered an intriguing perspective. He suggested that a potential upsurge in the number of long positions could present an attractive entry opportunity before the broader uptrend resumes. In his own words, "I have a strong suspicion that traders may be experiencing a 'fear of missing out' as the price hovers around the $30,000 mark. In the event that the short-term trend falters, a well-executed sweep could serve as an appealing entry point before a subsequent surge. Don't be surprised if this scenario unfolds as anticipated."

BTC/USD order book data. Source: Skew/XBTC/USD order book data. Source: Skew/X

The forecast anticipates a scenario of widespread adoption and the approval of a Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF)

Now, shifting our gaze to a more optimistic long-term perspective, the astute trading team at Stockmoney Lizards projected that the resistance located just above the $30,000 mark would inevitably give way. Drawing upon a chart fractal that compared BTC/USD performance in 2023 to the historic breakout of 2020, these analysts contended that the time was ripe for a substantial upward trajectory. They emphasized that the ultimate catalyst for this bullish outlook lay in the potential approval of the first-ever Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States.

Accompanying their comprehensive analysis, they made a noteworthy declaration: "The $31,000-$32,000 range is poised to breach its barriers. P.S.: We anticipate that some may raise the point that '2020's bull run occurred after the halving, whereas today we are positioned before it.' In response, we assert that such distinctions are inconsequential. This year, we anticipate that the forces of mass adoption and the long-anticipated ETF approval will be the primary drivers of market dynamics." Additionally, Stockmoney Lizards alluded to the upcoming block subsidy halving event scheduled for April 2024, adding an intriguing layer of anticipation to the evolving cryptocurrency landscape.

BTC/USD comparative chart. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/XBTC/USD comparative chart. Source: Stockmoney Lizards/X

Read more about: Bitcoin Revival: ETF Anticipation and Supply Shifts

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