Matrixport Predicts 'Santa Rally' May Drive Bitcoin to $56K by December

Matrixport, a prominent provider of crypto services, has put forth a bold projection for Bitcoin's performance. They foresee the possibility of Bitcoin surging to $56,000 by the end of the year, drawing on historical trends that indicate a tendency for bullish momentum to persist in the final months.

Markus Thielen, who serves as the Head of Research and Strategy at Matrixport, highlighted the period from early November to mid-December, often dubbed the "Santa Claus Rally" for Bitcoin. According to Thielen, if Bitcoin demonstrates a 100% or greater increase by this point in the year, there is a 71% likelihood that it will conclude the year with an upward trajectory, with an average year-end rally of 65%.

Presently, Bitcoin is trading above $35,000, indicating a remarkable 114% year-to-date surge. This impressive climb can be attributed to several factors, including growing optimism surrounding spot ETFs, speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's approach to tightening liquidity, and increased demand for safe-haven assets. If the projected 65% surge materializes, Bitcoin could potentially exceed $65,000 by the year's end.

Thielen noted, 

"Given these statistics, Bitcoin still holds the potential for further upside, and a +65% year-end rally would propel prices back to $56,000."

 The accompanying graphical representation offers a historical perspective on Bitcoin's performance in the initial ten months versus the final two months of the year, covering the years from 2010 to 2022.

Should Bitcoin exhibit a growth of no less than +100% at this juncture of the year, there exists a +71% probability of witnessing a subsequent surge of 65% or greater by December 31, as posited by Matrixport Technologies. 

Over the past dozen years, Bitcoin has achieved gains of no less than 100% in the initial 10 months on seven occasions. In these instances, Bitcoin experienced an average rally of 65% in the concluding eight weeks.

Thielen underscored, 

"When Bitcoin is up by at least +50% by the end of October, there is, on average, a 78% chance that it will make further gains towards year-end. Bitcoin witnessed an additional +68% surge until year-end on seven out of nine previous occasions. This analysis is based on thirteen years of Bitcoin history."

It is imperative to bear in mind that while historical data provides valuable insights, it does not guarantee future outcomes. Nevertheless, with the anticipated bullish mining reward halving expected early next year, the likelihood of history repeating itself remains significant.

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