BTC Price Update: September Outlook

Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a decline in its price, plummeting to $25,766 after the opening of Wall Street on September 1st, as it continued to suffer losses in its monthly closing performance. 

Chart depicting the daily BTC/USD exchange rate, sourced from TradingView  

The excitement surrounding the BTC price linked to Grayscale diminishes

The fading enthusiasm around BTC's price, often referred to as the "Grayscale hype," was evident in TradingView data, which indicated that Bitcoin had reached its lowest point since August 22nd.

The downward spiral in Bitcoin's value was capitalized upon by bearish market sentiment, dominating both Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency markets throughout the night. In August, BTC/USD recorded a substantial loss of 11.2%, leaving little room for optimism among market observers for a potential recovery in September.

Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, in his latest YouTube update, outlined the potential future trajectory for Bitcoin. He noted that BTC's price failed to sustain the gains associated with the "Grayscale hype," with substantial selling pressure and a decline in the weekly relative strength index (RSI) values toward a critical upward trendline. Furthermore, several exponential moving averages (EMAs), which had previously acted as support, were now transitioning into resistance

.Annotated chart illustrating the BTC/USD pair along with RSI data, sourced from Rekt Capital's YouTube channel  

For traders, the favored range for potential price drops in September spanned between 7% and 13%, based on historical data from the on-chain monitoring resource CoinGlass. Rekt Capital also mentioned the possibility of a relief rally, suggesting it might reach up to $27,200, a level that had previously served as support.

A screenshot displaying the chart of monthly returns for BTC/USD, obtained from CoinGlass as the source  

The robustness of the U.S. dollar is revisiting its peak levels from June

Adding to Bitcoin's challenges was the sustained strength of the U.S. dollar, which had seen its second consecutive day of significant gains. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was trading above 104 at the time of this report, having recovered from recent losses and showing signs of continuing an upward trend that began in mid-July. The level of interest now rested on a previous local high from June, which had acted as resistance during its retest in August.

Market participants were divided in their opinions regarding the impact of the DXY's strength on suppressing Bitcoin's price, as the inverse correlation between the two had been repeatedly challenged over the past year.

Chart depicting the daily U.S. dollar index (DXY) performance, sourced from TradingView