Bitcoin Halving Theories Unveiled

Martin Walker
Sep 8, 2023 at 11:09 am

Numerous multifaceted theories abound when it comes to the intriguing subject of Bitcoin halving events and their intricate interplay within the realm of market cycles. Within this intricate tapestry of perspectives, some voices assert, with varying degrees of conviction, that any meaningful correlation between these events and market dynamics is elusive. Yet, amid this intellectual mosaic, a recently unveiled hypothesis shines a light on an intriguing aspect: the pinpointing of a specific date that serves as a linchpin for these enigmatic cycles.

Notably, on the auspicious date of September 8th, a discerning technical analyst, renowned by the pseudonym "CryptoCon," unveiled an innovative market cycle theory firmly anchored to the significant date of November 28th.

What lends added weight to this theory is its ability to trace its origins back to the very inception of Bitcoin's price history, which commenced its journey in mid-July of 2010.

The crux of this novel theory orbits around the critical junctures represented by the dates of the first two halving events, specifically November 28, 2012, and July 9, 2016.

Intriguingly, as articulated by the astute analyst, these four-year cycles find their genesis in the annals of history on November 28th, while July 9th emerges as a recurring milestone within the overarching narrative of each cycle.

Alternate Theories on Halving Cycles

Of course, amidst this intricate web of suppositions, alternative conjectures exist. These competing theories carve up the four-year cycles into distinct phases, encompassing the phases of accumulation (tinted in verdant hues), fair valuation and preparation establishment (awash in a cerulean hue), the exuberant surge of the bull market and the pinnacle of a new price peak (doused in crimson), and the subsequent descent into a bear market (swathed in shades of orange).

As one delves deeper into this labyrinthine construct, it becomes apparent that these annual phases consistently revolve around the pivotal date of November 28th, with price troughs occurring in close proximity, approximately 21 days prior or posterior to this central date.

What further adds intrigue to this elaborate tapestry is the analyst's audacious assertion that future predictions may be predicated upon this framework. In this prophetic vein, it is surmised that the forthcoming zenith of Bitcoin's price will materialize around 21 days before or after July 9, 2024. A subsequent cycle's zenith, adhering to the model's prophetic script, will once again align approximately 21 days before or after November 28, 2025.

In accordance with this intricate narrative, Bitcoin is currently navigating the tranquil waters of the cooling bear market phase, as defined by this elaborate theory.

However, amidst the symphony of theories, one persistent refrain challenges the prominence of halving events in shaping Bitcoin's market cycles. This dissenting perspective, voiced by the industry observer affectionately known as "Pledditor" on September 5th, posits that the four-year cycles that have become a hallmark of Bitcoin's narrative are, in reality, fortuitous coincidences. In this counterpoint, the link between these cycles and halving events is relegated to a minor role. Instead, the limelight is cast upon the intriguing correlation between these cycles and the ebbs and flows of the global M2 money supply.

It is noteworthy that the global M2 money supply, as a holistic measure encompassing cash, currency, bank deposits, and the liquidity-rich assets within money market mutual funds, has recently exhibited its own rhythmic "4-year cycles." These cycles, intriguingly, have cast their shadow upon various risk assets, including the ever-enigmatic Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Price Forecast

In the ever-evolving tapestry of Bitcoin's price outlook, recent developments have ushered in a marginal uptick. Over the course of the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has displayed a modest gain of 1.8%. Consequently, at the time of this composition, Bitcoin is seen trading at $26,221 during the Friday morning Asian trading session.

It is, however, prudent to note that this uptick, while noteworthy, occupies a relatively minor position within the broader narrative, as Bitcoin continues to find itself ensconced within the confines of consolidation within the $26,000 threshold.

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