Oranges and BTC: Synchronized Growth

Martin Walker
Aug 20, 2023 at 12:07 pm

Disregard the usual weekly correlation between bitcoin and stocks. Instead, focus on a robust yearly connection between orange prices and BTC value. This striking pattern beautifully exemplifies the core allure of bitcoin's foundational thesis.

Since 2020, orange prices have been steadily ascending. Interestingly, this August, the commodities futures markets are anticipating a significant surge in these prices.

Concurrently, orange juice futures have reached unprecedented peaks:

"Recent weeks have witnessed prices in the orange juice futures market skyrocketing to exceed $3 per pound. Contrarily, about this time last year, prices were hovering modestly around $1.81 per pound.

This price surge predominantly results from a scarcity in global citrus supply."

Visualize the potential escalation in orange costs if their availability were confined to a mere 21 million units.

Drawing Parallels: Oranges and Bitcoin Price Trends Over 3 Years

While the prospect of bitcoin's August price surge remains uncertain in the market, noteworthy IMF data from the Federal Reserve portrays an analogous trajectory between orange prices and BTCUSD since January 2020

International Orange Costs. Reference: ImgurInternational Orange Costs. Reference: Imgur 

The juxtaposition of BTCUSD, orange prices, and orange juice futures is in line with the expectations of bitcoin's proponents in the event of their cryptocurrency project's success. These projections have now found empirical validation.

Interestingly, the orange analogy is so apt, especially in the aftermath of the SEC vs. Ripple legal battle. One might even conjecture that Satoshi Nakamoto (the mind behind bitcoin's emblem) had familiarized themselves with U.S. securities law before initiating their venture. This facet further underscores the comprehensive professionalism evident in every facet of the BTC project, from its inception to fruition.

Embracing Protection Against Inflation 

Global orange prices have surged by an impressive 180% since January 2020. In parallel, BTC has experienced a remarkable ascent of approximately 230%, surpassing the $9,000 threshold set in the same month. This phenomenon occurs because BTC's price rally mirrors the inflation of the dollar, analogous to the fluctuation in consumer goods prices. Whenever the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates, the purchasing power of the dollar diminishes, but BTC's purchasing potential increases.

A dollar earned in January 2020 now has the purchasing capacity for only half the oranges it once could. Conversely, a dollar stored within bitcoin's blockchain has outpaced inflation, enabling it to procure even more oranges in today's context than at the time of its acquisition. This very principle is why fervent bitcoin advocates uphold it as a fortress against the erosive effects of inflation on your earnings.

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