CryptoInquiry: Challenging the Bull Run Assumption

On December 14th, Nic Carter, a trailblazer in the world of Bitcoin, raised a compelling question. The prevalent assumption is that a bull run akin to 2017/18 or 2021/22 is imminent, he noted.

"I'm the one daring to ask why. What's the rationale behind this? Is it grounded in any data or merely a model trained on two isolated data points?" he inquired.

This query holds merit given the substantial differences in the current global economic landscape compared to the previous peak cycles.

almost everyone on here assumes that we're due for a 2017/18 or 2021/22 esque bull run. i'll be the guy to ask why? do you have any basis for this or have you trained a model on 2 datapoints?

— nic ???? carter (@nic__carter) December 14, 2023

Diverse Positive Responses

Initial responses predominantly highlighted the role of halving and issuance reduction as the driving forces behind bull markets.

However, Carter introduced an alternate perspective rooted in the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), positing that asset prices encapsulate all available information pertaining to that asset.

When applied to Bitcoin, the EMH contends that the cryptocurrency's price already factors in all relevant data on supply and demand, making it challenging to ascertain whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued at any given moment.

BitMEX Research brought attention to the existence of not just two but four significant cycle peaks, acknowledging, "While it's inevitable that these bull runs will conclude, it's also plausible that the cycle duration might significantly extend."

Bitcoin educator Dan Held weighed in, stating, "Human speculation and gambling will persist. That's the assumption."

Investment analyst Lyn Alden expressed her expectation that the crypto space will generally maintain correlation with various indicators of global liquidity, adding, "While my perspective on 2024 remains uncertain, by the conclusion of the combined 2024/2025 period, I would be somewhat surprised if liquidity hasn't increased."

Simultaneously, CoinRoutes' co-CEO Dave Weisberger pointed out that the Bitcoin network's potency has more than doubled since the previous peak. He emphasized that the advent of Bitcoin ETFs will democratize access to the asset, making it available to anyone with a brokerage account or pension fund.

Furthermore, a growing number of influential investors have embraced Bitcoin, enhancing the likelihood of its adoption as the "digital gold," according to Weisberger.

Primed for a Bullish Upturn

In a separate discourse, trader Bob Loukas shared insights on the indicators, suggesting a looming substantial bull run. He highlighted the peaking of interest rates, the imminent arrival of ETFs, and the completion of the first quarter of the Bitcoin four-year cycle. Loukas concluded, "Acceptance of the asset class is gaining momentum."

Rates have peaked. The #bitcoin 4 Year cycle just completed its first 1/4. ETF’s are coming. Asset class acceptance accelerating.

The confluence is near perfect.

The market will test you, often. Broaden the timeframe to weather volatility. Timing and discipline is key

— Bob Loukas ???? (@BobLoukas) December 14, 2023

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