Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: October 2023 Overview
After witnessing a substantial surge of approximately 80% during the initial two quarters of 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a noticeable dip, marking a decline of about 11% in the third quarter, eventually settling at the level of $28,200. However, amidst this market fluctuation, a glimmer of hope emerged for the bullish investors, as they managed to secure a positive monthly closure in September—a feat not witnessed since the year 2016.
As we step into the promising month of October, eager buyers are gearing up to seize the momentum, considering the historically bullish track record this month has shown. According to data from CoinGlass, October has seen negative monthly returns only in 2014 and 2018 since the year 2013. Though past performance doesn't dictate future outcomes, traders find value in using historical data as a starting point to craft their strategic approaches.
The recent upsurge in Bitcoin has also triggered heightened interest in altcoins, with select ones showcasing attempts to break past their respective resistance levels. These signs are indicative of a potentially robust recovery on the horizon. The momentum could gain further traction if Bitcoin extends its relief rally, aiming for the $28,000 mark.
However, it's important to note that not all altcoins are expected to experience a meteoric rise. The ones displaying strength are likely to lead the recovery charge. Let's delve into a thorough analysis of the top 5 cryptocurrencies that are expected to outperform in the near future.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
Since September 28, Bitcoin has been consistently trading above the moving averages, a positive indicator pointing towards the gradual tilt in favor of the buyers.
While the bears are putting up a fight to halt the rally near the $27,500 mark, the bulls have managed to stand their ground, promptly purchasing every minor dip. This resilience raises the probability of a breakthrough above $27,500. If this materializes, the BTC/USDT pair might retest the pivotal overhead resistance at $28,143, potentially triggering aggressive selling by the bearish faction.
Should the price sharply retreat from the $28,143 mark, the pair could revisit the 20-day exponential moving average ($26,630). A robust bounce off this level could propel the price above $28,143, setting the stage for a potential climb towards $30,000.
However, it's essential to acknowledge that this optimistic perspective might face a near-term setback if the price plunges and breaches the solid support level at $26,000.
Upon scrutinizing the 4-hour chart, we observe that the pair finds solid support at the 20-EMA, signifying the bulls' determined efforts to take charge. However, the bears are expected to put up a strong resistance in the zone between $27,300 and $27,500. To firmly gain control, sellers will have to drive the price below the 20-EMA.
On the flip side, if the bulls manage to breach the overhead resistance at $27,500, it could potentially pave the way for a triumphant rally towards $28,143, initiating a rigorous battle between the buyers and sellers at that level.
Maker Price Analysis:
Maker (MKR) made a notable breakthrough and concluded above the $1,370 mark on September 26, signaling the onset of a new upward trend. Traders typically show a propensity to buy during such uptrends, seizing opportunities during dips.
While the bears attempted to impede the upward trajectory at $1,600, the bulls responded by swiftly buying the dip at $1,432. This resilience underscores the sustained positive sentiment and eagerness to buy at lower levels. Surpassing the $1,600 level could propel the MKR/USDT pair into a rally towards $1,760, with the potential to escalate further to $1,909.
However, it's imperative to stay vigilant, as a sharp downturn below $1,432 could open the door for a retest of the breakout level at $1,370. For the uptrend to potentially falter, bears would need to drive the price below this critical support.
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, we observe a determined defense from the bears at the overhead resistance of $1,600. To sustain the upward momentum, the bulls must demonstrate a strong resolve to buy the dips and maintain the price above the 20-EMA.
A successful rebound from the 20-EMA would empower the buyers, potentially enabling them to challenge the obstacle at $1,600 once again, marking the initiation of the next leg of the uptrend. Conversely, if the price retreats to $1,432 and further to the 50-simple moving average, it could signal a potential breach below the 20-EMA, hinting at a deeper correction.
Aave Price Analysis:
Aave (AAVE) is currently striving to breach the long-term downtrend line, hinting at a potential trend reversal. The rebound off the 20-day EMA ($62.42) on September 28 serves as an encouraging sign, indicating a shift in sentiment from selling during rallies to buying during dips.
The bears are expected to put up a fight to hinder the recovery at the downtrend line. However, if the bulls manage to sustain the price above the 20-day EMA, it could significantly increase the likelihood of a successful breakthrough. In such a scenario, the AAVE/USDT pair could initiate a strong upward movement towards $88.
Crucially, the 20-day EMA stands as a pivotal support level to monitor on the downside. A breach of this level would suggest continued bearish activity at higher levels, potentially pulling the price down to the 50-day SMA ($58.82).
Both the upward-sloping 20-EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) hovering near the overbought zone underline the prevailing bullish momentum. While the rally may face resistance at the downtrend line, the bulls will endeavor to stabilize the decline at the 20-EMA.
A resilient bounce off the 20-EMA would unlock potential for a rise above the downtrend line, with the pair possibly rallying to $75 and subsequently to $80. To disrupt this momentum, the bears would need to pull off a sustained drop, maintaining the price below the 20-EMA.
THORChain Price Analysis:
THORChain (RUNE) has made its way to the overhead resistance at $2 for the third time within the past few days. Multiple retests of a resistance level tend to weaken its strength.
If the bulls manage to hold their ground at the current level, it could bolster the prospects of a rally above $2. In such a scenario, the RUNE/USDT pair could initially ascend to $2.28 and potentially extend its climb to $2.78.
However, it's crucial to remain cautious, as a sharp downturn resulting in a drop below the moving averages could negate this positive outlook. Such a move would imply a surrender by the bulls, potentially leading to a descent towards $1.37.
Analyzing the 4-hour chart, it's evident that bears are active near the overhead resistance at $2. Nevertheless, a positive sign emerges in the form of the bulls preventing a sustained dip below the 20-EMA, indicating that lower levels are indeed attracting buyers.
If the bulls successfully uphold the price above $2, it could signify the commencement of a new uptrend. This would set the stage for a potential surge towards $2.35. On the flip side, a downturn below
the 20-EMA could signal the initiation of a deeper correction, potentially retracing to the 50-SMA.
Injective Price Analysis:
Injective (INJ) has been navigating within a wide-ranging territory, fluctuating between $5.40 and $10 over the course of several days. Price action within such a range can often be erratic and volatile; however, when there's a significant spread between the boundaries, it can create intriguing trading opportunities.
The recent bullish crossover of the moving averages and the RSI in positive territory suggest an upper hand held by the bulls. The INJ/USDT pair could potentially advance to $8.28, where strong resistance from bears is expected. Overcoming this hurdle could fuel momentum, potentially propelling the pair towards $10.
To deter the upward trajectory, bears must staunchly defend the overhead resistance and swiftly drive the price below the moving averages. Such a move could trigger a retest of the immediate support at $6.36.
On the 4-hour chart, both moving averages exhibit an upward trend, with the RSI positioned in the overbought territory. This hints at a slight advantage for the bulls. The rally could potentially extend to $8.28, a level likely to pose a formidable hurdle.
On the downside, the initial support rests at the 20-EMA. A bounce off this level would affirm the continuity of the uptrend. Conversely, a breach below the 20-EMA would indicate profit-taking by the bulls, potentially pulling the price down to the 50-SMA.
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