BTC's Price Journey: Trends and Prospects

Bitcoin's value 

BTC symbols down $26,430 has hit a new low in more than two months following news of SpaceX reducing its BTC holdings.

BTC's price volatility has finally returned to the market on August 17th after an extended period of sideways trading in a tight range, as verified by data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.

Graph illustrating the daily fluctuations of BTC/USD. Information provided by TradingView. 

This month, Bitcoin experienced some of its calmest trading conditions ever, rivaling only September 2016 and the beginning of this year in terms of price movement.

With this tranquil period now disrupted, market observers are left wondering about the potential outcomes.

What lies ahead for Bitcoin? Cointelegraph has gathered key BTC price predictions as the cryptocurrency markets recover from their first major shakeup in several months.

Analyst: Bitcoin's "epic level" could be $25,000

Prior to the news of SpaceX's reduction in holdings, which triggered a drop in both Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies, traders were counting on strong support at the $28,000 mark.

Despite Bitcoin's existing downward trend, it had the backing of multiple support trend lines and the psychological reassurance of the $28,000 level.

However, these factors couldn't prevent the decline, and at present, BTC/USD is trading below $26,500.

Gareth Soloway, a prominent trader and educator, now sees $25,000 as the crucial level for potential BTC purchases.

“From a technical standpoint, the 28k level has been breached. It now has around 24 hours to reclaim that level, or the likelihood of a drop to 25k significantly increases,” he analyzed on X on August 18th.

“Achieving $25,000 for Bitcoin would have a monumental psychological impact.”

Graph illustrating the daily fluctuations of BTC/USD. Information provided by TradingView. 

Soloway highlighted that when BlackRock revealed intentions of launching a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the United States, BTC/USD was hovering around the $25,000 range. Subsequently, this news drove the market towards $30,000 and beyond.

With an imminent decision in the legal battle over launching a distinct U.S. spot ETF, the reminiscent feeling is even stronger.

“This is reminiscent of the time when news broke about Black Rock's application for a spot ETF. The surge from 25k to 31k was primarily fueled by the optimism regarding its approval,” Soloway continued.

Bitcoin's "Max pain" at $9,000

On the downside, however, $20,000 remains a significant milestone on the chart, untouched since mid-March.

“Should the 25k level be breached, the next target becomes 20k. This is a critical point as it signifies the point where SVB (Silicon Valley Bank and other regional banks) faltered. Capital fled from banks and sought refuge in BTC,” he elaborated, suggesting that there's even a possibility of Bitcoin returning to four-digit price levels.

“If 20k is surpassed, there's a high chance the 52-week (current cycle lows) level at $15,700 will be tested. The range of 12-13k remains a viable lower target, as does 9-10k (maximum pain).”

Soloway, however, doesn't see a compelling "reason" for a drop below the November 2022 cycle floor, unless a widespread sell-off of risk assets drags U.S. equities back to levels from that time. The last instance of BTC/USD falling below $10,000 was in September 2020.

“Smart investors who continue to believe in Bitcoin's role as digital gold will gradually purchase at key support levels and adopt a dollar-cost averaging strategy. In the long term, my outlook for Bitcoin remains highly optimistic,” he added.

Sam MacDonald, head analyst at CCI Australia, contributed to the discussion by suggesting that Bitcoin continues to serve as a "warning signal for global liquidity," hinting at a potential looming crash in the stock market.

In a potential silver lining, Bitcoin liquidations were already showing signs of cooling down at the time of writing, with most occurring on August 17th. This marked the highest level since the November 2022 FTX crisis, as indicated by data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.

Heatmap of cryptocurrency liquidations over a 24-hour period (captured image). Data source: CoinGlass. 

Moving averages left behind

One of the most noticeable casualties of the overnight crash is Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

Related: Bitcoin's price won't reach $100,000 before the 2024 halving, according to a Bitcoin investment executive

Traditionally a key support level in bear markets, the 200-week SMA has faced increasingly challenging conditions over the past year.

In 2022, BTC price action spent an unusually long time below this trend line, and as of August 18th, it no longer acts as support.

However, for Caleb Franzen, senior analyst at Cubic Analytics, the "cloud" surrounding the 200-week MA marks a promising buying zone.

“I remained optimistic in June when Bitcoin retested the 200-week MA cloud. My optimism holds tonight as Bitcoin once again tests the 200-week MA cloud,” he stated as part of his commentary on X.

Franzen also emphasized that his boundary is set at $25,000, suggesting that lower levels are unlikely.

One-week BTC/USD chart featuring the 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA). Data source: TradingView.