Bitcoin's Price Odyssey: Between Predictions and Uncertainties

Bitcoin (BTC), often represented by its ticker symbol, has experienced a drop to $26,034.

According to seasoned market participant Filbfilb, it is highly probable that Bitcoin will remain within a range until at least the fourth quarter of 2023. This perspective was shared in a discussion on August 25. Filbfilb, renowned as an analyst and co-founder of Decentrader, a trading suite, advised readers to anticipate a period of stable BTC prices heading into the end of the year.

Filbfilb remarked that the BTC price is nearing a "crucial juncture"

Filbfilb pointed out that despite Bitcoin's impressive 70% gains in the first quarter, the current price action during this halving cycle is quite similar to previous ones. He emphasized that over the course of 1200 days following the previous halving, Bitcoin has historically undergone consolidation. By presenting comparative charts, Filbfilb projected that miners would likely start driving prices higher as the Bitcoin halving approaches, which usually occurs around 1,276 days after each prior halving event.

He elaborated that miners are motivated to push prices above the marginal cost before the halving takes place. This action is driven by their collective incentive to maintain prices at a profitable level prior to their potential revenue reduction. Filbfilb also noted that in previous years, the anticipation of positive price impact from the halving had attracted smart money interested in "buying the rumor," contributing to market momentum.

Based on the timeline from the 2020 halving, the early days of November are speculated to be a potential deadline for this price behavior to manifest.

Filbfilb's forecast emphasized that the fourth quarter (Q4) holds significant importance for BTC. During this period, supply is expected to tighten, and new speculative investments might enter the market. Until then, a breakout for Bitcoin is considered unlikely; instead, consolidation remains the more plausible scenario.

Annotated chart depicting BTC/USD. Reference: Filbfilb/X.  

The overarching risk to Bitcoin on a macro scale remains an unaddressed issue.

Nevertheless, between the present moment and the projected Q4 developments, several unexpected factors could influence Bitcoin's trajectory. Of particular significance is the macroeconomic policy of the United States, which could impact risk assets. The upcoming September meeting of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will decide on benchmark interest rates, making it a focal point for those bullish on risk assets like Bitcoin.

Filbfilb described the macroeconomic aspect as the prominent unresolved issue in the situation. Should this aspect remain stable, he expressed confidence that Bitcoin could confidently surpass the $30,000 mark before the end of 2023.

However, a bearish scenario leading to Bitcoin's return to $20,000 might result in the $31,800 high observed in 2023 to remain a significant resistance level. Filbfilb concluded that if such a scenario were to persist for an extended period, the pre-halving price surge could potentially only reach the previously seen highs of 2023, with a subsequent breakout occurring later.

Possible outcomes for BTC/USD. Reference: Filbfilb/X. 

Pantera Capital, an asset management firm, recently set a target of $35,000 for Bitcoin in the next halving event, with a more ambitious prediction of $148,000 after the 2024 event. In contrast, another prediction strongly asserted that Bitcoin would not reach $100,000 before specific conditions were met.