Bitcoin ETF Odds Soar After Legal Victory

Bloomberg's cadre of market experts have turned their gaze toward the horizon of potential financial developments, forecasting a heightened probability for the greenlighting of a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) before the final curtain falls on 2023. This alteration in their outlook comes on the heels of a noteworthy legal triumph by Grayscale, who emerged victorious in their clash against the formidable federal securities regulator.

Stepping into the virtual spotlight on the X platform, Eric Balchunas, a venerable analyst specializing in exchange-traded funds at Bloomberg, unveiled their revision, a perceptible bump from the erstwhile 65% to the newly emboldened 75% likelihood. This pivot is underpinned by the resounding and unanimous decree delivered by the judicial emissaries of the United States Court of Appeals Circuit, whose resolution in the recent legal skirmish has set a decisive tone.

In an entirely separate communiqué, which saw the light of day on August 30, Bloomberg's resident oracles, James Seyffart and Elliot Stein, lent their voices to the chorus. They opined, "The pantheon of justices collectively invalidated the suppositions proffered by the SEC. This creates a conundrum for the agency as it finds itself staring down impending deadlines, making the task of substantiating subsequent refusals an arduous endeavor."

NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of '24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w "very little wiggle room" via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

In his personal transmission on the X platform, Seyffart peered into the crystal ball and mused that the sanctification of Bitcoin spot ETFs might morph into an inescapable reality as the final quarter of 2024 draws near. His estimation, an audacious ascent to a staggering 95% probability of endorsement by that juncture.

Balchunas, ever the prognosticator, also chimed in, considering the recent tangle of legal complexities and the resultant dent in public perception. He contended that, given the intricate interplay of political dynamics, the SEC would be hard-pressed to engage in the unenviable act of denial.

NEW: @JSeyff & I are upping our odds to 75% of spot bitcoin ETFs launching this yr (95% by end of '24). While we factored Grayscale win into our prev 65% odds, the unanimity & decisiveness of ruling was beyond expectations and leaves SEC w "very little wiggle room" via @NYCStein pic.twitter.com/IyEGmWjuHa

— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 30, 2023

In the imminent lustrum, a flurry of seven applications for Bitcoin spot ETFs have been penciled in for their maiden date with destiny, courting judgment from the SEC. The roll call of hopefuls includes Bitwise, BlackRock, VanEck, Fidelity, Invesco, Wisdomtree, and Valkyrie.

Balchunas, with an air of prescient intuition, mused that it wouldn't send shockwaves through the system if the SEC were to protract their contemplation of these nascent applications.

Yet, in a narrative twist worthy of the silver screen, Balchunas postulated that the denouement might unveil an unexpected twist—picture a scenario where the SEC stages a volte-face, conferring their blessing upon the Bitcoin spot ETFs in one fell swoop, catching the financial world off guard.