Analyst Signals Caution for Bitcoin Bulls as Monthly Stochastic Indicator Dips
Bitcoin's recent performance has sparked concerns within the analytical ranks at Fairlead Strategies. They've pinpointed a potential roadblock for Bitcoin enthusiasts, which arises from the monthly stochastic indicator delivering a concerning "overbought downturn" signal.
This stochastic indicator, initially conceptualized by George C. Lane back in the 1950s, has recently dipped below the crucial threshold of 80. This dip is seen as a telltale sign of diminishing upward momentum. Ordinarily fluctuating between 0 and 100, readings surpassing 80 are indicative of a state of overbought conditions, while those below 20 signify the opposite. An "overbought downturn," characterized by a drop from overbought levels, essentially signals a weakening of the prevailing upward momentum.
Katie Stockton, the founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, has underscored the significance of Bitcoin confirming this "overbought downturn" towards the conclusion of August. This development has sowed seeds of concern regarding a potentially protracted "basing process." Notably, this concern is exacerbated by the steadfast resistance level hovering around $31,900, commonly referred to as the "cloud resistance." Over the past several months, Bitcoin has grappled with this resistance, hinting at a prolonged consolidation or bottoming phase in the market.
To add historical context, previous instances of "overbought downturns" in early 2021 and December 2017 have coincided with substantial price peaks in the Bitcoin market.
Stockton has also drawn attention to the monthly MACD histogram, a crucial indicator for assessing trend strength and shifts. Currently, it registers a near-flatline state close to zero, indicative of a neutral long-term bias. Traditionally, crossovers above zero signal a bullish momentum shift, whereas dips below zero indicate a bearish trend reversal. Despite the indicator reaching its lowest point a year ago and failing to turn positive since then, it is essential to recognize that a sustainable uptrend has yet to be confirmed.
As of the reporting time, Bitcoin was trading at $25,700. Stockton has highlighted that immediate support is potentially found at $25,200. Furthermore, she has identified the 50-day simple moving average at $28,200 as a pivotal resistance level that Bitcoin must surmount to regain a more bullish trajectory.